We at FOREXYARD, encourage our customers to get involved in the most intense market events. As such, we think you should know that the U.S. Advanced Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures are expected tomorrow, October 30th, at 12:30 (GMT), and you need to be prepared. Market events like this one tend to create either big changes to current trends or push current trends even further. Generally, the majors are the ones most affected by market events in general, but Crude Oil, Gold prices, and even the price of Silver can change dramatically in the seconds after such a publication. For more information about the U.S. Advanced GDP, please read below.

What is the Advanced Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ?

The Advanced Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a survey that is being used to measure the annualized change in the value of all goods and services produced by the relevant economy. It is defined as the total market value of all goods and services produced within the U.S. economy in one quarter, in this case the 3rd quarter. The survey is released on a quarterly basis and it measures the differences compared to the same quarter in the previous year. There are 3 versions of the GDP, released one month apart – “Advanced”, “Preliminary” and “Final”. The “Advanced” estimates are based on source data that is incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency, while the adjusted figures are delivered through the ‘Preliminary’ version.

Traders follow this survey very closely because it is considered to be the broadest measurement of economic activity and a primary gauge of an economy’s health.

If the Survey Comes Inline with Market Forecasts

Expectations for this quarter reveal that the Advanced U.S. GDP figures will probably fall from 2.8% on the ‘Final’ publication to -0.5% on the ‘Advanced’.

Previous surveys have shown that GDP publications that go inline with market forecasts tend to leave the Dollar unchanged. They have also shown that in cases where publications have beaten analysts’ forecasts, the market was greatly impacted, and the USD had instantly rose, usually in a dramatic trend.

Because of the perceived economic weakness in the U.S. economy, any measure above the forecasted value may act as a positive that could return the USD’s previous bullish run against the EUR. We may see a EUR/USD rate of 1.2700 continue through the week’s end.

If the Survey Will Surprise With Bearishness

When the actual figure is lower than forecasted, investors are likely to see the USD depreciating against its currency pairs and crosses.

Previous indicators relating to consumer spending, sentiment, and retail sales all came in below their expected values. Also the failure of Lehman Brothers in September caused major turbulence in the financial markets during the third quarter. American citizens may have been spooked by this event and kept their spending tight in the previous quarter. GDP numbers may be negatively affected as private consumption contributes a large percentage of the calculation. This leads us to believe that Advanced GDP may fail to meet expectations and send the USD lower against the EUR, possibly to the 1.3000 level.

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We at FOREXYARD, encourage our customers to get involved in the most intense market events. As such, we think you should know that the U.S. Federal Funds Rate figure is expected tomorrow, October 29th, 18:15 (GMT), and you need to be prepared. Market events like this one tend to create either big changes to current trends or push current trends even further. Generally, the Majors are the ones most affected by market events in general but Crude Oil, Gold prices, and even the price of Silver can change dramatically in the seconds after such a publication. For more information about the U.S. Federal Funds Rate, please read below.

What is the U.S. Federal Funds Rate?

The U.S. Federal Funds Rate, or Interest Rates, is the rate at which banks lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other banks overnight. This figure is released 8 times each year. It is important because short-term Interest Rates are the leading factor in determining the value of a currency. In fact, most other economic indicators are used by traders to speculate about the future movement of these Interest Rates. This figure is decided on by the members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) who vote on where to set a “target rate,” because the actual rate is set by the open market. It is a mechanism used by the Federal Reserve to regulate the supply of money in the U.S. economy and has a direct impact on supply and demand for the USD.

According to the needs of the U.S. economy, the FOMC will elect to increase, decrease, or leave the rate unchanged. Traders pay close attention to this figure as it has a strong correlation with the value of the U.S. Dollar. If rates are cut, there will be an increase in the amount of USD in circulation making them grow weaker in value. If rates are increased, the exact opposite happens. Dollars are taken out of the economy to help contain inflation and strengthen the value of the USD.

If the Federal Funds Rate is Decreased

At present, market analysts are forecasting the Federal Funds Rate to be cut to 1.00% from its current level of 1.50%. If this happens it would indicate that the Fed is going to start buying securities. This will likely have the effect of lowering the value of the USD against its major currency pairs as traders will start selling USD during its devaluation.

By decreasing the Interest Rates, it stimulates U.S. economic growth by making it cheaper to get a mortgage or buy a car. This entices investors to put more money towards capital in the local economy. However, this change in the Interest Rate is always approached with caution. If rates are cut too far, the rapidly growing economy will force a sharp increase to the rate of inflation. As inflation raises, the cost of goods and services also rise and make the value of the dollar even weaker. When this happens it usually warrants a subsequent increase to the Federal Funds Rate.

Ultimately the Fed is trying to find the target interest rate that balances these factors. Traders should expect a call by the Fed to cut the present rates as the recession is weakening the buying power of most Americans and action must be taken to stave off further disaster.

If the Federal Funds Rate is Increased

Although the current forecast is predicting the Fed to cut Interest Rates, there is the possibility of an increase in this figure. If the Fed decides to enact such an increase in Interest Rates, it will begin selling securities. This will limit the amount of U.S. currency in the market. If the Federal Funds Rate will indeed be increased, the upward momentum of the USD will take off as its value becomes much stronger versus its currency rivals.

This result is less likely for October 2008 seeing as such a move has the potential to cause a recession. Since the U.S. economy is currently witnessing a recessionary move, an action such as this is not likely. It is far more possible that the Fed will indeed issue an order to cut current rates than it would be for the Fed to issue an increase in the Federal Funds Rate at this time.

The best way to capture profits from the announcement of these rates is to be aware of their impact on the strength of the USD and trade accordingly.

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