We at FOREXYARD, encourage our customers to get involved in the most intense market events. As such, we think you should know that the U.S. Unemployment Claims figures are expected tomorrow, October 23, at 12:30 (GMT), and you need to be prepared. Market events like this one tend to create either big changes to current trends or push current trends even further. Generally, the majors are the ones most affected by market events in general but Crude Oil, Gold prices, and even the price of Silver can change dramatically in the seconds after such a publication. For more information about the U.S. Unemployment Claims, please read below.

What is U.S. Unemployment Claims?

U.S. Unemployment Claims, also known as Jobless Claims, is a survey used to measure the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week within the United States of America. It is released on a weekly basis, about 5 days after the week ends. Every state in the U.S offers jobless insurance programs that must conform to rules set down by federal law. The Labor Department in Washington then gathers all the data submitted by each state and releases the updated figures to the public on the following Thursday.

The number of unemployed individuals is an important gauge of general economic health because employed citizens are more likely spend and, therefore, more likely to increase total consumer spending.

If the Survey Comes Inline with Market Forecasts

Expectations for this month are suggesting that the U.S. Unemployment Claims have increased this week from 461K to 470K. It is no secret that the global financial picture is currently standing before a significant crossroad that is liable to have a profound impact on the upcoming year. However, one should not only consider the economic interpretation of the indicator, but also look from the psychological point of view. In times when equity markets all over the world are experiencing sharp losses, investors are finding themselves in a fragile state of mind, which in turn provides markets with extreme volatility.

Data is expected to indicate that after 4 consecutive weeks of decreasing levels of unemployed people, the U.S. economy is once again suffering from a growing number of people filing for unemployment insurance, which could trigger a bearish ripple upon USD crosses. If all stays in line with market forecasts the EUR/USD pair may rise towards the 1.3500 level once again.

If the Survey Will Surprise With Bullishness

When the actual figure is lower than forecasted, traders are likely to see the USD appreciate against its currency pairs and crosses. After a series of positive data from this exact survey, which pointed out that for the time being the economic crisis is only perceivable in the financial industry, another week of similar results will continue to strengthen the fact that at least for now the average person is not damaged from all the ominous prophecies in the market. The U.S. economy might be salvaged from what could be a long-lasting depression, and that will surely help to ease some of the growing concerns seen lately, even if it is for just for a little while. In this case, investors will feel somewhat more secure to disperse funds in U.S. industries, and by that to extend the current bullish trend of the USD. This scenario could get the EUR/USD to break its recent low record of 1.2750.

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We at FOREXYARD, encourage our customers to get involved in the most intense market events. As such, we think you should know that the U.S. Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment figures are expected tomorrow, October 17th, 13:55 (GMT), and you need to be prepared. Market events like this one tend to create either big changes to current trends or push current trends even further. Generally, the Majors are the ones most affected by market events in general, but Crude Oil, Gold prices, and even the price of Silver can change dramatically in the seconds after such a publication. For more information about the U.S. Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment, please read below.

What is the U.S. Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment Indicator?

The Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment Indicator is a survey of consumer confidence conducted by the University of Michigan. This is a telephone survey which gathers information on consumer expectations regarding the overall economy. It measures the attitudes and expectations concerning both present and future economic conditions of 500 consumers. They are asked about how they see their own financial futures and opinions on the prospects for the U.S. economy. It is an early assessment of consumer sentiment regarding personal finances, business conditions and purchasing power.

There are two versions of this data released about 15 days apart – Preliminary and Revised. The Preliminary release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact; it is released around the 10th of each month. A final report for the prior month is released on the first of the month.

Just like Consumer Confidence, the level of consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending. The more confident consumers are about the economy and their own personal finances, the more likely they are to spend. The index is useful for the investors because it gives a snapshot of whether consumers feel like spending money.

If the Survey Comes Inline with Market Forecasts

Economists are looking for consumer sentiment to decline to the level of 66.0, as opposed to September when it surprisingly jumped to 73.1. The market anticipates such a low reading because Americans are still in doubt about the fragile economy and financial instability. Such pessimism has been fueled by a cocktail of consumer woes: higher gasoline prices, food costs, falling home values and weaker income growth.

The recent acceleration in the loss of confidence indicates a longer and potentially deeper recession. Consumers are viewing the deteriorating economic conditions in the U.S. and seeing very little hope for recovery anytime soon. A low or falling UoM Consumer Sentiment will be considered an early indicator of an economic downturn. As a result, investors and traders are advised to watch the figure for insight into the general health of the economy. In this case, the greenback’s latest bullish trend is not likely to extend any further, and the EUR/USD might rise to test the 1.4000 level in the near future.

If the Survey Will Surprise With Bullishness

If the actual figure is higher than forecasted, traders are likely to see the USD appreciating against its currency pairs and crosses. A positive figure will reflect a better-than-forecasted mood of U.S. consumers, meaning the public has regained some of its faith in the economic system. The improvement may also reflect consumer happiness that the government appears to be taking action. As a result, this positive data may further extend the USD’s recent bullish trend to help it reach as low as 1.3200 against the EUR.