We at FOREXYARD, encourage our customers to get involved in the most intense market events. As such, we think you should know that the U.S. Retail Sales figures are expected tomorrow, November 14th, at 13:30 (GMT), and you need to be prepared. Market events like this one tend to create either big changes to current trends or push current trends even further. Generally, the Majors are the ones most affected by market events in general, but Crude Oil, Gold prices, and even the price of Silver can change dramatically in the seconds after such a publication. For more information about the U.S. Retail Sales, please read below.

What is the U.S. Retail Sales Indicator?

U.S. Retail Sales is a leading economic indicator used to measure the percentage change in the total value of sales at the retail level during the previous month. It is a leading indicator of economic health because the report reflects a wide variety of consumer spending, such as restaurants, consumer goods, and autos. Consumer sentiment can also be derived from this survey in order to gauge the outlook on the U.S. economy. This report is the earliest indicator of consumer spending released by the U.S. Census Bureau. An additional report released at the same time is Core Retail Sales which does not include sales of automobiles. When used together, the reports paint a picture of the state of the U.S. Consumer. This survey predominantly helps to analyze market trends and to determine the direction of the U.S. economy.

If the Survey Comes Inline with Market Forecasts

Expectations for this month are suggesting that the U.S. Retail Sales will fall by -2.0% in September, reflecting a -0.8% decrease from October. Such a result could demonstrate a shrinking economy and a lower consumer sentiment in the U.S. The U.S. economy is currently facing a financial crisis, triggered by a downturn in the housing market, a lack of credit, and reluctance by banks to lend. This may adversely affect the report because the sale of new automobiles account for roughly 20% of the report’s total. U.S. auto sales are predominantly financed by bank loans. The recent drop in equity markets may add to a negative outlook for the American consumer which could reduce their spending on non-essential items. A decreasing figure will most likely be interpreted by investors that the American people are reducing their purchases in a time of financial uncertainty. Such a scenario will probably move the greenback and the EUR/USD might rise to test the 1.2900 level.

If the Survey Will Surprise With Bullishness

When the actual figure is higher than forecasted, traders are likely to see the USD appreciate against its currency pairs and crosses. The volatile two trading weeks we have just experienced concluded with significant strength for the USD. Investors are now following the opportunity to make profits out of their open positions on the USD, and a better-than-expected figure on the Retail Sales survey, such as -0.4% instead of -2.0% will possibly provide them that exact opportunity. Such a figure is good because it will ease some concerns regarding a contracting U.S. economy. If U.S. citizens are increasing their purchases, this may reduce pressure in a tough market and push the USD higher. With the recent decrease in gas prices, consumers may see an increase in disposable income, reflecting in additional purchases. In this turn of events, the EUR/USD might correct itself down to reach as low as the 1.2000 level.

Click here to visit Forex Yard and open a SuperMini, Pro or Demo Account.

We at FOREXYARD, encourage our customers to get involved in the most intense market events. As such, we think you should know that U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change figures are expected on Friday, November 7th, 13:30 (GMT), and you need to be prepared. Market events like this one tend to create either big changes to current trends or push current trends even further. Generally, the Majors are the ones most affected by market events in general, but Crude Oil, Gold prices, and even the price of Silver can change dramatically in the seconds after such a publication. For more information about the U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change, please read below.

What is the Non-Farm Employment Change?

The U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change, also known as “Non-Farm Payrolls” (NFP) and the “Employment Report,” is a monthly economic indicator used to measure the change in the number of employed people, excluding the farming industry.

Each month the Current Employment Statistics Program surveys about 150,000 businesses, representing approximately 390,000 worksites, in order to provide detailed industry data on employment, work-hours, and earnings of workers on non-farm payrolls for all 50 U.S. states. The survey is then published on the first Friday of each month.

The NFP is an important leading indicator that also affects consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. Traders value the indicator with the highest importance as its early monthly release can set the tone for the rest of the month’s market movement. Investors should also note Wednesday’s 13:15 (GMT) release of Automatic Data Processing Inc.’s (ADP’s) estimate of Non-Farm Employment Change. In the past, ADP has provided an accurate assessment of what was to come from the actual NFP release two days later. With the volatility of world economies in recent months, however, ADP has not been able to correctly estimate the Non-Farm Payroll outcome, only strengthening the real power behind Friday’s news release.

If the Survey Comes Inline With Market Forecasts

Expectations for this month reveal that the Non-Farm Employment Change figures are forecasted to drop to -200K from last month’s -159K. Such a decrease, or the possibility that this figure will drop further than this mark, will be a continuation of the devastating decline in employment numbers that the U.S. economy has experienced since April of this year. The recent economic struggle, which is being fought vehemently by the U.S. government, has created doubt in the market for the USD, which is driving its value lower. Considering that this survey has delivered negative figures for several consecutive months now, another sharp drop could signal a reversal to the USD’s bullishness. This would mean the USD could be facing a very unfortunate weekend, causing the EUR/USD pair to rise beyond the 1.3000 level once again.

If the Survey Will Surprise With Bullishness

If the actual figure is higher than forecasted, traders are likely to see a continuation of the recent bullish movements. Currently, investors are setting their positions on the USD based on the assumption that by the end of the week, the USD should face a bearish reversal. However, in case the survey delivers better figures than expected, such as a figure of -150K instead of the forecasted -200K, investors might be compelled to reevaluate their strategies and go long on the USD. In this turn of events, the USD may receive an extra boost that will help extend its bullishness, and the EUR/USD could head toward a price near 1.2400.

Click here to visit Forex Yard and open a SuperMini, Pro or Demo Account.